Perhaps the biggest crap shoot in the state of Alaska for "hitting the jackpot" is figuring out WHEN to drive, perhaps hundreds of miles, to engage in the Alaska State Resident Personal Use Salmon Dipnet Fisheries at the Kasilof River and Kenai River on the Kenai Peninsula. Many folks over the decades have lucked out, made the commitment and expense, to arrive at one of these fisheries, drop their nets in the water and within hours have filled their allocated permit limit and headed back home. But on the other hand, at least half of the participants have had the ill-fortune to arrive during periods when very few fish were entering the rivers. Or there was extensive additional commercial fishing time announced that thinned out the numbers of sockeye getting through to the rivers. Or the wind was blowing hard to the beach and giving dippers a major trouncing with 3 to 4 foot beach break literally beating them to a pulp. Conditions such as that will push fish into deeper water to avoid the waves making the insult to their efforts even more stinging.

So whether you are a fortunate local within minutes of the dipnet fishery who can make instantaneous decisions or one who must commit some serious time and resources to drive from Anchorage or the Valley or perhaps even Fairbanks to roll the dice on your chances, how does one maximize their potential for SUCCESS? Well its not Rocket Science or Brain Surgery but for sure one must be aware of all the available PLANNING INFORMATION the Alaska Outdoor Journal provides to give participants the best shot at being successful. And even then, there are times that defy logic and all the facts and produce a KILLER DAY on the beach or from a boat when least expected. Again, the title of this piece, Its Really A Crap Shoot is very fitting and TRUE.

OK, I guess everyone has arrived and signed the participants roster so let the class begin. Remember if you pass the test you will receive a passing grade (this is a Pass/Fail course) and 4.0 college credits at the School of Hard Knocks. These are perhaps the most valuable credits one can receive in the School of Life, right?

To begin, I'm NOT going to give you the Ins and Outs, the Ups and Downs, and the hand-holding information on HOW to dip a sockeye salmon in these fisheries. But LESSON #1, your success may be directly related to your gear. Anyone who has engaged in dipnetting even one year has seen some of the most gawd-awful homemade nets on the planet. Many won't last the season before disintegrating. So in this lesson RULE #1 is invest in and use QUALITY GEAR! Period! You will be participating in this fishery year after year after year. Buy a GOOD NET ONE TIME that will last a lifetime and serve you well. You will never regret the investment, both from a financial standpoint and also from the catching side of the equation.

I'm going to throw a plug in here for a friend who I feel has designed and produced the best dipnet you can buy and at a very affordable price when considering you CAN'T wear out one of these babies. Mike's Welding in Sterling, Alaska, right on the highway, has engineered, re-engineered and field tested his nets for over a dozen years before settling on this specific design and parameters. He uses a special extruded aluminum design on his hoop material that is specific to only his nets. And I can tell you, purchasing one of his many models of nets requires an analysis of exactly what kind of dipping you will be doing. FOLKS, listen up, IT DOES MAKE A DIFFERENCE WHAT TYPE OF DIPPER YOU ARE~! Are you a beach dipper and never dip from a boat? Are you a boat dipper and never dip from the beach? Or are you a combo man, like myself, who may dabble off the beaches of the Kasilof and drag from a boat on the Kenai. I have written up an extensive explanation of why you should consider Mike's Welding nets over all your other selections. And there are LOTS of nets out there but none that can compare to these. READ THIS PAGE OF INFORMATION ON HOW TO DECIDE ON A NET or replace a net you already have. That's all I'll say on Nets and catching fish. Other than I USE Mike's Nets and in the past Four Seasons I have landed, FROM THE BEACH and BOAT, a 40 pound hen king salmon on three of those years. As far as I'm concerned these nets are a King Salmon Magnet!!! Ha. I will add one additional note: Between the 42 inch hoop and the 60 inch hoop, the 60 has TWICE THE AREA for catching fish than the smaller hoop.

Oh geez, where was I? Sorry for digressing. I've got a 44" for my boat but will be buying a 60 inch for the beach because in side-by-side comparisons between my buddy fishing a 60 and me a 44 he beat me to a pulp, hands down on every outing from the beach. OK back to the point of this piece. How can you optimize your chances for success?

I've already given you one tool to consider that has good value but very tough to nail on the head. That is OTF EXPLAINED~!. For the dipnetting purist, its a good read. Now I have only one other source of information that MAY help you maximize your success when participating in the dipnet fisheries. This is a BIG ONE! And that is KNOW WHAT THE SOCKEYE MANAGEMENT PLAN IS AND ADJUST YOUR EFFORTS AROUND OPPORTUNITIES, NOT FATE!

Hey you guys talking in the back of the room, be quiet or leave the room. This next info is important. Every dipper NEEDS to know how the commercial fishing sockeye salmon management plan works. There are lots of variables and it changes based on many factors. For those needing to drive a long way, understanding "timing of your trip" may save you frustration of not catching many fish compared to hitting the jackpot. But there are NO GUARANTEES, I'm just going to improve your odds.

Cook Inlet Commercial Salmon Management Plan, in a nutshell. The first thing you need to know is the plan has guidelines based on the projected/forecasted sockeye salmon return for the entire Cook Inlet. When projected sockeye returns are below 2.3 million total fish they use one set of "rules." When the projected return is between 2.3 million and 4.6 million (THAT'S THIS YEAR'S FORECAST RANGE) they use another set of rules. And when the return is projected to be over 4.6 million sockeye they use a third set of rules. As you may realize, there is good logic in this. When runs are weak they use more discretion for protecting the run and making sure escapement goals are achieved. When runs are fairly solid they have more opportunity to harvest more fish and offer more commfish time. And when runs are very strong there are even more allowances for harvest.

The Sport angler and the Dipnetter "float" within these management approaches and end up harvesting more fish in strong years and fewer fish in the weaker returns. Its a share and share alike resource we all "own" and have a right to a portion of. Besides the "run prediction" variable in the plan, there is a calendar factor built into the plan.

Two Management Calendar Periods & A Recalcuation
The commercial fishing season for the Cook Inlet is basically managed in two time frames.

From JUNE 25th through JULY 9th the plan works with the following parameters and rules:

• The Normal scheduled commercial fishing openings for drift and beach sites are MONDAY 7am to 7pm and THURSDAY 7am to 7pm.
• The commercial fisheries division of ADFG also has available to them the opportunity to add additional commercial fishing time by issuing Emergency Orders. The TOTAL EXTRA HOURS per WEEK of additional EO fishing time is 48 hours for this calendar period. They can use this additional time on any day and hour that is not a normal opening or in the mandatory closure window period.
• The Department is also mandated to provide a MANDATORY 36 HOUR Commercial Fishing Closure Window beginning at the end of the Thursday commercial fishing period but starting no later than FRIDAY 0700. Typically if the 36 Hour Closure begins at the 7PM ending of the normal Thursday period, there will be no commercial nets in the water until 7AM SATURDAY morning. If they extend Thursday fishing a few hours this 36 hour window will begin at that new closure time for the next 36 hours.

JULY 10th and ending AUGUST 15th is the second half of the Commercial Fishing Season and is managed under the following rules when the total predicted Cook Inlet run is estimated to fall between 2.6 and 4.6 Million sockeye:

• Normal scheduled openings are MONDAY & THURSDAY from 7AM to 7PM.
• In this calendar period there is an allocation of 51 Hours of Available Emergency Order extensions that may be added to normal periods or announced on short notice on any other day and hour with the following exceptions:
• In this calendar period the Department must have TWO Mandatory Commercial Fishing Closure Windows each WEEK.
  • The first is always 24 Hours from 0001 TUESDAY to 2359 TUESDAY.
  • The second closure is the Mandatory 36 Hour Window beginning when commercial fishing ends Thursday Evening but starting no later than 0700 Friday morning and extends for 36 continuous hours before any Emergency Order (EO) can be initiated.

There is one final part of the Management Plan that occurs every year. On JULY 20th the department's commercial fisheries managers take all the existing factual data to this date, i.e. the OTF numbers, the amounts of fish harvested to date, the current escapement counts in each of the rivers, and then RECALCULATES the estimated final Cook Inlet Sockeye Run Size based on these real numbers. Sometimes the total run size will change. This can change the management plan!

IF the new July 20th calculated total Sockeye salmon run is estimated to be ABOVE 4.6 Million salmon the following plan is implemented:

• Normal scheduled openings are MONDAY & THURSDAY from 7AM to 7PM.
• In this calendar period there is an allocation of 84 Hours of Available Emergency Order extensions that may be added to normal periods or announced on short notice on any other day and hour with the following exceptions:
• In this calendar period from July 20th to August 15th the Department will reduced the MANDATORY CLOSURE Windows to ONE to allow harvest of the surplus fish.
  • The Mandatory TUESDAY 24 Hour Closure Window is eliminated. NOTE: FREQUENTLY AT THIS TIME the F&G Sport Fish division will announce their own Emergency Orders to increase Kenai River daily bag limits to SIX reds per day and open Kenai Dipnetting to 24 hours per day through July 31st.
  • The Mandatory 36 Hour Window remains in place and begins when commercial fishing ends Thursday Evening but no later than 0700 Friday morning and extends for 36 continuous hours before any Emergency Order (EO) can be initiated to commercial fish again.

As I said, any non-fishing day and hour that is not designated as a MANDATORY closure period is fair game for an Emergency Order opening on short notice. Typically there is at least 6 hours notice of an upcoming EO but this can be shortened depending on circumstances. Especially if they are EXTENDING an existing fishing period in progress. Sometimes a few additional hours are added to an open period so that beach site fishers can pull their nets easier than against a ripping tide that has their corks sunk.

The calendar chart below gives you the "Hard Facts" on when fishing IS and IS NOT going to occur for a Total Sockeye Return falling between 2.6 and 4.6 million salmon. Anything in WHITE is no man's land where EO openings or extension hours can be announced. So there you have it. Between using the OTF Index to "guess" when those fish 80 miles away are going to arrive to the "hard facts" of the management plan to use for your planning efforts you have the best information anyone can get and use for picking your own "window of opportunity."

Watch for and READ the information posted on the Kasilof and Kenai River Sockeye Salmon Run Charts as well as announcements posted on the Private Angler Fishing Reports page and the TELEX Ticker on the cover page of AOJ for changing conditions. Charts are only updated ONCE per day whereas the Reports page and Telex Ticker can have information added anytime, 24/7.

These two sockeye runs MUST be managed through Commerical Fishing to prevent over escapement into the river and lake systems. No amount of sportfishing or dipnetting harvest can come close to achieving the harvest numbers required to stay within the spawning goal range. We, the sport angler and personal use dipper, are the benefactors of these massive runs and therefore must accept the way the runs must be managed and harvested. There are always some dippers that complain every year about not getting their limits due to all the emergency orders issued. If they had read all the information the Alaska Outdoor Journal provides them their opportunities for maximizing their harvest are greatly improved.

Here is something to think about. In the year 2011 the Kenai River Dipnetters harvested 538,000 sockeye salmon from July 10th to July 31st. In a single day they set a one day harvest record of almost 100,000 fish. The Kasilof River Personal Use fishery harvests another 100,000 sockeye per season. Rod & reel sport anglers on the Kenai River harvest an additional 150,000 sockeye salmon. WE ARE GETTING OUR FAIR SHARE!

Good Luck, Good Fishing, Good Dipping~! -Klondike Kid-